Global methane action pays for itself at least six times over.

We provide a comprehensive assessment of the economic benefits and costs of global methane emissions abatement, anchored on the Global Methane Pledge. We use an integrated assessment model to estimate avoided climate damages at the global and country levels, including quantification of tipping points and risk. We further estimate air-quality cobenefits and methane abatement costs. We find that global methane action would be highly beneficial, yielding a benefit-cost ratio of at least six. It would provide larger benefits in lower-income countries, and it would reduce tipping point intensity and risk. We provide estimates of the social cost of methane to compare with previous literature and show that these estimates imply that key economies, such as the United States, European Union, and China, should be self-interested to abate methane emissions substantially. Editor's summary: Methane is a key greenhouse gas, and its emissions create large economic costs because of their effects on climate. Stoerk et al. calculated the economic value of methane emission abatement efforts, finding that reasonable actions could reduce climate-related damages in 2050 by more than a trillion dollars a year while costing only one sixth of the damages they would avoid. Concerted methane abatement action also would reduce the risks associated with climate-tipping behaviors and extreme climate damage scenarios. —Jesse Smith INTRODUCTION: Methane is a powerful but short-lived greenhouse gas, responsible for about one-third of the warming caused by well-mixed greenhouse gases since the 19th century. Its concentration in the atmosphere is once again rising rapidly owing to emissions from fossil fuels, agriculture, and waste, as well as anthropogenic and natural emissions from wetlands. Because of these two factors, reducing methane emissions has been identified as one of the most effective ways to curb near-term global warming. In response, the Global Methane Pledge, launched at COP26 in 2021, set an international target to reduce anthropogenic methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. Understanding the economic case for such action is crucial, especially given concerns about costs and the distribution of climate impacts across countries. RATIONALE: We provide a comprehensive economic assessment of global methane abatement, quantifying both benefits and costs. Our study improves on prior work by incorporating recent climate modeling, country-level damage estimates, and the effects of climate tipping points. We anchor our analysis on methane scenarios consistent with the Global Methane Pledge, using an integrated assessment model (IAM) to capture the impact of methane abatement on global temperatures, economic damages, and key tipping elements such as ice sheets and ocean currents. In addition to modeling climate-related benefits, we include improved air quality from reduced methane-driven ozone, and we evaluate abatement costs using detailed sectoral estimates from the Global Methane Assessment. RESULTS: Our findings show that global methane abatement yields large net economic benefits. Achieving the Global Methane Pledge results in more than $1 trillion in annual avoided market damages by 2050. Benefits are greater in lower-income countries because of their higher vulnerability to climate change. Methane action also reduces climate risk, including the likelihood and severity of extreme damage outcomes (climate tail risk). It lowers the intensity of several key tipping points: For example, by 2050, the likelihood of Amazon rainforest dieback drops by 8% and Indian monsoon disruption by 13%. Even using conservative assumptions about costs, the benefit-cost ratio of methane action is at least three—rising to more than six when health cobenefits are included. Some cost estimates suggest that methane mitigation could even be profitable owing to energy recovery and other gains. Finally, we provide estimates of the "social cost of methane" [the monetary value of future damages from 1 metric ton of methane emissions (tCH4)], finding a global average of $7381/tCH4, with higher domestic values for economies such as the US, EU, China, and India—implying strong economic self-interest in methane reductions. CONCLUSION: Our analysis shows that global methane mitigation is not only feasible but also economically compelling. The benefits—spanning avoided climate damages and improved air quality—consistently outweigh the costs under a wide range of scenarios. The gains are especially pronounced for low- and middle-income countries, underscoring the policy's equity-enhancing potential. Given that major economies also stand to gain considerably on their own, global cooperation is not strictly necessary for substantial methane action to be in their national interest. Net economic benefit of global methane action from 2020 to 2050.: Net present value of climate benefits (market and nonmarket), air-quality cobenefits, and abatement costs under five methane abatement cost scenarios. Horizontal black lines show net benefits. The dashed line indicates the switching value threshold and available cost headroom before net present value is reduced to zero. The discount rate is 2.5%. IIASA, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; EPA, US Environmental Protection Agency; Harmsen et al., M. Harmsen et al., Environ. Sci. Policy99, 136–149 (2019). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]